Stochastic uncoupled dynamics and Nash equilibrium

In this paper we consider dynamic processes, in repeated games, that are subject to the natural informational restriction of uncoupledness. We study the almost sure convergence of play (the period-by-period behavior as well as the long-run frequency) to Nash equilibria of the one-shot stage game, and present a number of possibility and impossibility results. Basically, we show that if in addition to random experimentation some recall, or memory, is introduced, then successful search procedures that are uncoupled can be devised. In particular, to get almost sure convergence to pure Nash equilibria when these exist, it suffices to recall the last two periods of play.     

“珑”、“琥”构形成分蕴含的文化信息

在《说文解字》中的“珑”从玉、从龙,“琥”从玉、从虎,这种构形成分蕴含着中国传统思想观念中对龙、虎的特殊情感,对玉的神秘认识。     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

建立安全生产长效机制实现渔业经济安全发展

本文从我国海洋渔业安全管理的现实需要出发，着眼于建立安全生产长效机制，提出了海洋渔业安全生产长效机制建设的指导思想，以及建立渔业安全法律法规框架、完善监管体制、建立防控体系、应急救援体系、培训教育体系、投入保障机制等六个方面的关键措施。     

面向新闻领域的中文实体关系抽取

随着互联网技术的快速发展,人们能够及时地获取大量的新闻文本信息,如何从新闻中自动获取关键信息,把新闻中具有价值的信息转化为结构化数据,从而快速有效地获取有用的知识已是迫切需求。实体关系抽取是获取关键信息的方法之一,但目前关于中文的实体关系抽取工作较少。针对基于长短时记忆网络的中文实体识别模型难于提取长距离的依存关系特征和句法特征问题,提出利用双向树形长短时记忆神经网络提取依存句法树的结构特征。在提取的特征的基础上,使用条件随机场判断实体的类别和边界,并在实体识别模型中加入注意力机制提高模型的性能。在《人民日报》数据集和ACE 2005语料库上训练模型,验证了模型的有效性。     

Tourism and Chinese popular nationalism

As a complex and emerging phenomenon, nationalism presents a serious challenge to international marketers, with no exception to the field of tourism. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence in understanding the role of nationalism in tourist travel intention. A qualitative research approach with in-depth interview and on-site observation was adopted to bridge this gap during the Diaoyu/Senkaku Island Incident between China and Japan since late 2012. In particular, this study seeks to shed light on the influence of nationalism on Chinese tourists. A nationalism dynamics model has been established to explore and explain different segments of tourists based on their self-perceived level of nationalism. The findings of this paper offer important implications for both scholars and practitioners in their strategic responses to this challenging nationalism phenomenon.     

TEM4短文听写对英语专业基础教学的启示

TEM4(Test for English Majors[Grade 4])测试中，考生短文听写部分失分较多是普遍现象，这是短时记忆功能紊乱的突出反映。而短时记忆容量减少，大脑工作记忆状态不佳是短时记忆功能紊乱的主要表现形式。本文通过抽样分析TEM4短文听写考生得分情况，阐述导致短时记忆功能紊乱的主要原因及其与听写技能之间的内在关联，并进一步谈及对英语专业基础阶段教学的启示。     

Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure

Analysis, model selection and forecasting in univariate time series models can be routinely carried out for models in which the model order is relatively small. Under an ARMA assumption, classical estimation, model selection and forecasting can be routinely implemented with the Box–Jenkins time domain representation. However, this approach becomes at best prohibitive and at worst impossible when the model order is high. In particular, the standard assumption of stationarity imposes constraints on the parameter space that are increasingly complex. One solution within the pure AR domain is the latent root factorization in which the characteristic polynomial of the AR model is factorized in the complex domain, and where inference questions of interest and their solution are expressed in terms of the implied (reciprocal) complex roots; by allowing for unit roots, this factorization can identify any sustained periodic components. In this paper, as an alternative to identifying periodic behaviour, we concentrate on frequency domain inference and parameterize the spectrum in terms of the reciprocal roots, and, in addition, incorporate Gegenbauer components. We discuss a Bayesian solution to the various inference problems associated with model selection involving a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. One key development presented is a new approach to forecasting that utilizes a Metropolis step to obtain predictions in the time domain even though inference is being carried out in the frequency domain. This approach provides a more complete Bayesian solution to forecasting for ARMA models than the traditional approach that truncates the infinite AR representation, and extends naturally to Gegenbauer ARMA and fractionally differenced models.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Bank Issued Options versus Options Exchange Options

Since 1998, large investment banks have become active as issuers of options, generally referred to as call warrants or bank‐issued options. This has led to an interesting situation in the Netherlands, where simultaneously call warrants are traded on the stock exchange, and long‐term call options are traded on the options exchange. Both entitle their holders to buy shares of common stock. We start with a direct comparison between call warrants and call options, written on the same stock and with the same exercise price, but where the call option has a longer time to maturity. In 13 out of 16 cases we find that the call warrants are priced higher, which is a clear violation of basic option pricing rules. In the second part of the analysis we use option pricing models to compare the pricing of call warrants and call options. If implied standard deviations from options are used to price the call warrants, we find that the call warrants are strongly overpriced during the first five trading days. The average overpricing is between 25 and 30%. Only a small part of the overpricing can be explained by rational arguments such as transaction costs. We suggest that the overvaluation can be explained by a combination of an active financial marketing by the banks and the framing effect.     

Prometheus prostrate

The revival of interest among Marxists and Schumpeterians in regular, half-century long waves of economic activity since the Industrial Revolution leads beyond the mainstream liberal preoccupation with abundance-such as that spawned by Limits to Growth-to consideration of the technological revolutions historically spurring cycles of growth. The requirements and character of future technological revolutions, and prospects for capitalism and liberal institutions, are sketched in an effort to demonstrate what the debate should be about.